Bob Sears is a
vaccine-rejecting physician. In a post claiming
California Bill AB2109 Threatens Vaccine Freedom of Choice, Sears claimed:
At a time when we are trying to decrease health care spending, this bill will add millions of dollars of extra health care visits for families every year.
I haven't seen anyone quantify the numbers of exemptions and the costs yet. The bill would become effective as of the beginning of the 2013-2014 school year. As of the 2010-2011 school year (the last year
rates were published) over the whole state, an average of
2.28% of incoming kindergarteners' parents had a Personal Belief Exemption
There are at least two times that families have to provide proof of immunization or an approved exemption, at the beginning of kindergarten (
required vaccines) and at the beginning of 7th grade (
TdaP-- whooping cough booster)
According to California state records: at
http://www.cdph.ca.gov/data/statistics/Documents/VSC-2007-0201.pdf
566,137 live births in 2007 (estimate for incoming kindergarteners in fall of 2013)
529,245 live births in 2002 (estimate for incoming 7th graders in fall 2013)
566,137* 0.0228 = 12,680 (with rounding)
529,245** 0.0228 =12,067 (with rounding)
Let's say AB 2109 passes, and let's just round up to 25,000 students whose parents are refusing vaccines who require a signed form from an MD, DO, Physician's Assistant or Nurse Practioner (yes, the latter two can provide the education and sign the form. "Millions of dollars" -- well, that would be at least $2 million. Therefore:
25,000 * X = 2,000,000
X= $80.00
I'm trying to find out what the largest HMO in California, Kaiser Permanente, charges for a drop-in vaccine clinic visit, without success so far.
My own provider, Palo Alto Medical Foundation, offers a host of classes on various parenting topics.
The baby-safety basics class is two hours and costs $40.00. So I believe that the cost to vaccine-refusing parents of complying with the provisions in AB 2109 would be far less than $80.00.
The decision not to vaccinate has dollar costs also. The 2008 San Diego measles outbreak (which originated with an intentionally unvaccinated child who was a patient of Bob Sears) was quantified:
The importation resulted in 839 exposed persons, 11 additional cases (all in unvaccinated children), and the hospitalization of an infant too young to be vaccinated. Two-dose vaccination coverage of 95%, absence of vaccine failure, and a vigorous outbreak response halted spread beyond the third generation, at a net public-sector cost of $10376 per case. Although 75% of the cases were of persons who were intentionally unvaccinated, 48 children too young to be vaccinated were quarantined, at an average family cost of $775 per child.
That's a healthy chunk of change for a family, $775.